Texas is home to 31.3 million people, and with two of the
country's leading metropolitan areas by economic output, Texas
is the world's eighth largest economy at US$2.7 trillion. Texas
leads its fellow states in energy production, consumer exports,
corporate expansion and total job creation, and foreign direct
investment. The enormity of the Texas economy cannot be separated
from national and global markets, and state political trends
directly impact economic growth and output. While the old saying
goes that "all politics is local," it has proven to be
true that Texas politics are global.

While Texas has been dominated at the state level by the
Republican Party for more than 30 years, the state has proven to be
a major factor in the national political conversation no matter
which party controls Washington, DC. During Republican
administrations, the Texas legislature has served as a fast track
to national party priorities, including immigration, voter
identification requirements, and mid-decade redistricting maps.
During Democratic administrations, the state has served as a
challenger to environmental, healthcare, and immigration policies,
often through suits filed by the state attorney general.

In turn, the primary election here has taken center stage as the
nation prepares for a contentious and expensive midterm election
cycle. Unofficial voter participation numbers by party show
Democratic voter turnout is notably higher than previous cycles,
and outpaced Republicans by more than 110,000 votes.1
The total campaign expenditure for US Senate topped US$122 million
between all candidates, making it the most expensive primary race
in Texas history. US$70 million of that total was in direct buys
from incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX).

While most races were decided on the 3 March Election Day,
multiple key races are now in a 12-week runoff concluding on 26
May. These races, especially the runoff for the Republican
nomination for US Senate, will continue to set spending records,
drawing time, attention, and resources from other states in similar
scenarios. Twenty-four percent of the 18.7 million registered
voters voted in the primary, including 2.3 million Democrats, and
2.2 million Republicans. This is the first time since the 2020
presidential election that Democrats voted in higher numbers than
Republicans.

The race for governor is set between incumbent Governor Greg
Abbott (R-TX)and State Representative Gina Hinojosa (D-TX).
Hinojosa defeated eight other Democrat candidates in the primary
and is completing her fifth term in the state house. Abbott easily
won the Republican Primary after facing ten challengers and began
the race with more than US$106 million in campaign funds. Hinojosa
has raised approximately US$1.3 million. Abbott is widely credited
for making immigration a top line national issue by creating a
taxpayer funded bussing program where illegal immigrants were sent
to predominantly Democrat leaning cities around the country. Recent
national polling on immigration issues and the use of various law
enforcement agencies to enforce the Trump administration's
immigration policies havebecome a net negative polling issue, and
driving the undoing of years of Republican gains among Latino
voters, particularly along the border counties. This will continue
to create opportunity districts for Democrats that will ultimately
cause the Republican fundraising apparatus to spend significant
resources defending seats in Texas.

The race for lieutenant governor is between incumbent Lieutenant
Governor Dan Patrick (R-TX), and either State Representative Vikki
Goodwin (D-TX) or Houston-area community activist Marco Velez
(D-TX). Patrick has US$31.7 million cash on hand, and has served as
lieutenant governor since 2015. The office of lieutenant governor
presides over the state Senate, similar to the manner in which the
vice president in the US Senate. However, unlike the vice
president, the office of lieutenant governor is an independently
statewide elected office. Patrick has promoted some of the most
socially conservative policies during his time in office, including
Preventing Sharia Law in Texas and Promoting America
& Texas First in school curriculum. Patrick is a key ally
to the Trump administration both in the legislature, and to the
Trump campaign. Goodwin is a licensed realtor by profession, served
in the Texas House for four terms, and has raised just over half a
million dollars in the race.

The race for comptroller of public accounts is the most
important statewide race to which many observers are not paying
enough attention. As Texas' chief financial officer, tax
collector, accountant, revenue estimator, treasurer, cashier and
purchasing manager, the agency is responsible for the accounting of
the US$338 billion Texas budget. The office also collects taxes and
fees owed to the state. This was a rare instance of President
Donald Trump and Abbott with opposing endorsements between Acting
Comptroller Kelly Hancock (R-TX) and former State Senator Don
Huffines (R-TX). Abbott spent more than US$3.4 million supporting
Hancock only to lose to Huffines by nearly 35 points. Huffines is
an ultraconservative running predominantly on social issues that
have little to do with the office. The key responsibility, and what
could give Huffines an outsized influence over the legislative and
executive branches, is the biennial revenue estimate. This estimate
gives the legislature a baseline number to build the proceeding
state budget. Huffines has expressed interest in applying a
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) model to the office,
which may be done in a way that will directly impact state program
implementation, like education savings accounts, the State Energy
Conservation Office, the Texas Broadband Development Office, etc.
Huffines will face former county judge and current state senator
Sarah Eckhardt (D-TX) in the fall.

The race to replace Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX) will also
be decided in a runoff between Congressman Chip Roy (R-TX) and
State Senator Mayes Middleton (R-TX). Roy received a last-minute
positive mention, though not a full endorsement, from Trump during
a multicandidate campaign event in Corpus Christi, Texas, and
enjoys the highest statewide name recognition of the field.
Middleton is an ultraconservative member of the Texas Senate who
predominantly self-funded his campaign to the tune of US$11.8
million. The winner will face off against State Senator Nathan
Johnson (D-TX) or perennial candidate Joe Jaworski (D-TX) in the
fall. The office has been held by a Republican since 1999 when US
Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) held the office. Paxton often found
himself as lead plaintiff or joining multiple suits against former
Presidents Barrack Obama and Joseph Biden era policies, often being
heard in front of the United States Supreme Court. The office has
often been used as a springboard to higher office as was the case
for Cornyn, Abbott, and potentially Paxton himself.

With the offices of governor and lieutenant governor looking
like safe Republican holds, a Democrat win in the race for attorney
general would be significant. This is another race where more
Democrats voted in the primary than Republicans, though only
narrowly. If Democrats maintain their high turnout numbers then
this will be a race to watch.

The most expensive Republican primary race in United States
history will continue another 12-weeks, with the 24-year career of
Texas' senior US senator on the line. After a heated eight way
primary with state Attorney General Ken Paxton, Congressman Wesley
Hunt (R-TX), and others, Cornyn exceeded expectations to place
first in the race with 41.9%, Paxton finished second at 40.7%, and
Hunt with 13.5%. Cornyn spent more than US$70 million to get into
the runoff and was a guest on Air Force One for a campaign stop in
Corpus Christi, Texas late last week. The president called Cornyn a
"great Senator" but also made recent positive mention of
Paxton as well. Paxton famously led the Texas v.
Pennsylvania suit in 2020 that challenged the presidential
election results in four states former President Biden won. Those
four states were; Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.
The case was declined by the United States Supreme Court. Should
Paxton prevail, it would be a decisive shift to the right of
Cornyn. In the eyes of many Democrats this is a more favorable
general election match up in the fall. No other candidate who
failed to make the runoff has endorsed at this time. President
Trump has stated he will formally endorse a candidate and call for
the other candidate to withdraw.