Are Prediction Market Sports Event Contracts for Canada on the Way?

Last updated on: March 29, 2026, 10:50h.

Mark Keast

Expertise:

Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization announces that investment management service Wealthsimple can offer prediction market trading
Restrictions around sports and political events
Decision comes down as U.S.-based platform Kalshi sets record for March Madness trading volume

Does this week’s decision by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) to allow investment management service Wealthsimple to set up a prediction market trading platform so people can trade in event contracts mean Polymarket-style sports and political contracts are on the way in Canada to compete with sportsbook operators?
A decision by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization this week will allow Wealthsimple to offer prediction market offerings in Canada, with restrictions. Does that mean that Polymarket-style platforms are on the way? (Image: Getty)
Prediction Markets in Canada
To sum up, Wealthsimple, an Investment Dealer Member of CIRO, now will be able to offer event contracts around economic forecasts, such as economic statistics around topics like labour markets, housing and central bank reserve rates, environment forecasts, and financial indicators.
CIRO’s approval is narrow, an industry source told us. No “yes” or “no” contracts around political or sporting events, like with prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket – a line has been drawn there under Canadian securities regulation.
A CIRO bulletin this week also signalled that further restrictions may follow. Wealthsimple is based in Ontario, and other provinces and territories in the country can still say no to authorizing access to Wealthsimple’s prediction market platform. We have to wait and see what happens on that front.
No Event Contracts on Outcomes of Elections Allowed
Dealer Members can offer event contracts that have a term of maturity of 30 days or longer. To date, two CIRO Investment Dealer Members have been authorized to allow trading in event contracts – Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. being the other.

If sports and election event contracts come to Canada, the more likely path is through provincial gaming frameworks, not securities regulation,” said Evan Thomas, a lawyer advising financial technology clients on the topic. “But that’s a completely separate regulatory track, with different regulators, different laws and different policy objectives.”

Prediction markets had been illegal in Canada, with consumers there still using VPNs to disguise their location and access them. Polymarket is actually banned in Ontario. The Ontario Securities Commission hit them with a $200,000 fine last April.
In the United States, prediction market like Kalshi and Polymarket offer contracts around sports and political events, among others. Federally regulated predictions markets overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) allow users in all 50 states to trade on the outcomes of real-world events.
Massive March Madness Kalshi Numbers
For example, for the NCAA’s March Madness men’s and women’s Div. 1 basketball tournament, going on now, Kalshi generated a reported total trading volume of $2.3 billion over the first four days of the men’s tournament, according to Yahoo Finance. Yahoo reported that Kalshi made $25 million in fees there.
Debate all you want if this is gambling or a regulated financial exchange under CFTC oversight, but people are wagering a “yes” or “no” on the outcome of a sports event. In the case of March Madness, that includes game winner contracts, round-by-round advancements (the tournament is now in the Elite Eight stage), and tournament champion predictions.
The U.S. marketplace is embroiled in lawsuits across numerous states involving Kalshi and Polymarket with states claiming prediction markets are disguised sports betting platforms skipping state gambling rules, a gambling loophole costing them tax money. Sports betting is legal in 38 U.S. states (plus Washington, DC and Puerto Rico), yet people nationwide wager on prediction market platforms.
Canada’s Appetite for Betting
Canadian bettors, who have access to markets from a mix of private sector sports betting operators as well as a crown corporation platform in Ontario, crown corporations everywhere else, and a vast network of grey market providers, are looking at the tsunami of prediction markets and are wondering if and when they’ll get a piece of that action up here.
Canadians have among the largest appetites for betting in the world.
According to Blask, Canada’s online gambling market reached Competitive Earning Baseline (Blask’s new metric incorporating AI-driven analysis of market position, competitive dynamics, and consumer behaviour to evaluate a brand’s revenue expectations in any given market) of USD $9.5 billion in 2025.
That makes Canada the third largest market behind the United States and the United Kingdom. According to Blask, Canada saw the highest year-over-year growth rate among the top five markets in the world.
Could Sports Event Contracts Happen in Canada?
As Thomas explained, in Canada, there’s no federal regulator like the CFTC asserting exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. Securities regulation and gaming regulation are both provincially grounded, so there’s no preemption argument.

“To me, the question is whether the Ontario or Alberta gaming regulators and policy-makers are open to prediction markets involving sports,” he said.
So, in theory, if the regulators and policy-makers in Ontario or Alberta were open to it, a prediction market platform could become a registered iGaming operator. And it’s possible – the demand in Canada for sports event contracts is clearly there, prediction markets can offer better pricing and a fairer structure than traditional sportsbooks, and not allowing a regulated alternative simply pushes Canadians towards unregulated alternatives, which can hurt Canadians rather than protecting them.”
Legal Wrinkle for U.S. Platforms
But people watching this all unfold can’t turn a blind eye to the challenges, Thomas added. Everyone would need to be comfortable that it’s legal under the Criminal Code and the current igaming frameworks. There might need to be statutory or regulatory amendments at the federal or provincial level. Provinces would need to build in institutional expertise to oversee exchange-traded contracts, with different risks than traditional sportsbooks.
There’s also a strategic wrinkle for the major U.S. platforms,” he said. “They are spending enormous legal resources arguing that their products are federally regulated financial derivatives, not gaming. Seeking a provincial gaming registration in Canada might concede the point they’re fighting in U.S. courts. Even if a Canadian framework was open to them, they may not want to walk through that door while the U.S. preemption argument is unresolved.”
Still, he added, the interest in prediction markets in Canada is there, and regulators and policy-makers are watching this, so it’s not hard to see how it could develop in Canada over time.

To sum up, Wealthsimple, an Investment Dealer Member of CIRO, now will be able to offer event contracts around economic forecasts, such as economic statistics around topics like labour markets, housing and central bank reserve rates, environment forecasts, and financial indicators.

CIRO’s approval is narrow, an industry source told us. No “yes” or “no” contracts around political or sporting events, like with prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket – a line has been drawn there under Canadian securities regulation.

A CIRO bulletin this week also signalled that further restrictions may follow. Wealthsimple is based in Ontario, and other provinces and territories in the country can still say no to authorizing access to Wealthsimple’s prediction market platform. We have to wait and see what happens on that front.

Dealer Members can offer event contracts that have a term of maturity of 30 days or longer. To date, two CIRO Investment Dealer Members have been authorized to allow trading in event contracts – Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. being the other.

In the United States, prediction market like Kalshi and Polymarket offer contracts around sports and political events, among others. Federally regulated predictions markets overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) allow users in all 50 states to trade on the outcomes of real-world events.

For example, for the NCAA’s March Madness men’s and women’s Div. 1 basketball tournament, going on now, Kalshi generated a reported total trading volume of $2.3 billion over the first four days of the men’s tournament, according to Yahoo Finance. Yahoo reported that Kalshi made $25 million in fees there.