The higher the home price, the more likely an adjustable-rate mortgage is used.

My trusty spreadsheet found another symbol of housing affordability pressures when it peeked at Cotality stats tracking the share of variable-rate mortgages. The yearly stats, dating back to 2019, covered all states and the District of Columbia – except Vermont.

When you rank the states by borrowers’ use of adjustable loans, then slice the scorecard into three groups, you find that adjustable mortgages are most common in 17 states where the median price averages $454,300 median price.

The fewest ARMs are in 17 states, with an average median price of $310,100. That’s a 46% gap.

And adjustable loans were also found where appreciation is stronger: Prices rose 52% over six years in those states with the largest share of adjustable loans, vs. rising 42% since 2019 in states where adjustables are less common.

Plus, contemplate this nugget from Cotality: Nearly half of the mortgages above $1 million in December 2025 had adjustable rates.

At 31%, California had the nation’s largest share of adjustable-rate mortgages in 2025.

These borrowers were likely willing to forgo the stability of fixed-rate loans to manage the financial strain of California’s median home price of $759,200, according to Zillow. That price, No. 2 nationally, is up 43% over six years.

Ponder the potential savings an adjustable loan might provide.

Financing that median home with 2025’s average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, as tracked by Freddie Mac – and assuming a 20% down payment – would cost a hypothetical borrower $3,880 per month.