by

Randy Shaw
on

October 27, 2025

On October 6 I assessed a likely three-way race to succeed Congressmember Nancy Pelosi. She is expected to announce her decision not to run after the November elections. Evidence has since emerged that Pelosi’s daughter, Christine, will not run and that the legendary former Speaker would back D1 Supervisor Connie Chan.

As stated in Politico, “Chan was the only local elected official to speak alongside Pelosi at a related labor event to rally support for Democrats’ gerrymandering proposal. The two posed together for photos at a union hall surrounded by dozens of workers. Many local political observers interpreted the event as an indicator of Pelosi’s thinking — especially after Chan’s reelection fight last year, when she narrowly defeated a moderate challenger with the help of Pelosi’s endorsement and union money.”

My sources tell me that Chan planned on running for State Senate in the special election following Wiener’s election to Congress. But some Chan supporters have a larger goal. They think Chan can curtail Wiener’s political career by defeating him in the congressional race. Even if she lost, running a strong campaign would make her the clear favorite in the state senate contest in early 2027.

Would Chan pose a serious threat to Wiener? He announced his candidacy last week with a powerful video about his family background and political legacy. Here’s how the race looks.

Chan has a much stronger Chinese-American voter base than Wiener.  He won strong support from this community in his 2016 State Senate race as Korean-American Jane Kim could not get votes that Chan will secure.

Wiener’s strong support for Joel Engardio and Prop K (the Great Highway measure) hurts him among the Westside’s Chinese-American voters. In contrast, Chan is pushing for a citywide vote to reverse Prop K. A repeal Prop K measure on the June ballot would lose citywide but the fact that she is talking about reversing Prop K boosts her with the moderate to conservative Westside voters she needs to win.

Stereotypes about Westside Chinese-American voting depict the constituency as too moderate or conservative to back Chan. Yet she has twice won election from that demographic in D1. In 2024 Chan won by over 1000 votes despite redistricting adding conservative Sea Cliff voters to her district.

As with Harry Britt’s campaign against Nancy Pelosi in 1987, a theme of Wiener’s effort is likely to be San Francisco electing its first LGBTQ congressmember. But Chan can offer a counter-narrative: she would be the city’s first Chinese-American elected to that office.

Chan would be universally supported by progressive voters. If she runs,  Saikat Chakrabarti will either drop out or get far fewer votes than if Christine Pelosi were Wiener’s chief opponent. If you combine progressives with her support from Westside Chinese-Americans and moderates who don’t like Wiener for one reason or another, a path for a Chan victory is there.