CHARLEBOIS: Counter-tariffs are coming — and so is more shrinkflation

Consumers will blame the food industry — not Canada’s trade policies

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Canada’s latest counter-tariffs take effect Sept. 8, and Canadians should understand where the economic pressure will first be felt. Unlike last year, the initial shock will not necessarily appear on grocery shelves. This time, it will begin farther up the food chain, with importers, processors and manufacturers.

Ottawa will impose tariffs of 15, 25 and 50% on more than 700 categories of American goods, covering approximately $27.6 billion in imports. The measures are intended to match recent American tariffs dollar for dollar. Politically, the strategy may sound forceful. Economically, however, there is no such thing as a cost-free tariff.

Several food-related ingredients will be affected. Milk powders, concentrated milk, whey, casein and other milk proteins will face tariffs of 50%. Many cheeses will face a 25% tariff, while honey, molasses, certain baking mixes and frozen doughs will be subject to tariffs of 50%.

Then there is packaging. Plastic food bags and film, corrugated boxes, paper bags, glass bottles and jars, and aluminum foil are also targeted, often at 50%. These materials may not be food, but they are essential to producing, protecting, transporting and selling it.