The world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide is on the cusp of a turning point that could herald the beginning of a global decline in fossil fuel use

China’s rapid deployment of solar power has helped cut emissions from the energy sectorCostfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

China’s rapid deployment of solar power has helped cut emissions from the energy sector

2025 may be the year that China’s greenhouse gas emissions begin a long-term downward trend – but right now that landmark is still hanging in the balance.

China is the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide and has set a target of 2030 to see its emissions start to decline, a turning point regarded as critical if the world is to avert a climate catastrophe in coming decades.

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After the first three quarters of 2025, it is too close to call whether the full year will see a slight increase or a slight decrease, according to an analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Finland for Carbon Brief.

China’s total emissions have been flat or falling slightly since March 2024. The rapid growth of solar and wind power generation is the main force bringing emissions down, but fossil fuel demand has risen in other sectors, says Myllyvirta.

“Emissions from the power, cement and steel sectors are down, but the chemical industry has seen another major increase in coal and oil consumption,” he says.