Welcome to the first referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency: Election night 2025.

For most of this year, the only evidence that public opinion has turned against Trump was an occasional special election or a judicial race in Wisconsin — approval ratings, aside.

But, as Inside Washington broke down last month, the gubernatorial races and other major-ticket statewide races. And it doesn’t get much better than a mayor’s race in New York that could determine if socialist progressive insurgent Zohran Mamdani can have a clear mandate to govern, two moderate Democratic congresswomen can win governorships in states chock full of suburbanites and voters of color — and whether Democrats can redraw their congressional map in California, which would bolster Gavin Newsom’s presidential aspirations.

Inside Washington has been following these races ravenously, checking out fundraising, polling and early voting. While occasionally we get it wrong and we promptly admit it, here’s our boldest predictions for tomorrow night’s elections in the heart of Dixie, the Garden State, the Big Apple and the Golden State.

This is the easiest one for the ol’ crystal ball. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer congresswoman who turned a red district in the suburbs of Richmond blue in 2018, will crush Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

While Sears has gone all-in on transphobia, it has fallen flat amid a government shutdown and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency slashing federal jobs, which particularly hurts employees in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. Sears also fell for Spanberger’s bait in a debate when she said “that’s not discrimination” when Spanberger pointed out Earle-Sears would ban same-sex marriage.

What matters is just how big Spanberger’s win will be. Democrats hope to gain a supermajority in the state House of Delegates, which would allow them to redraw their congressional map with ease. Polling shows a Spanberger lead between 10 to 14 points.

Final prediction: Spanberger wins by 12 percent and nabs a supermajority.

If the governor’s race in Virginia a matter of how big Spanberger will win, the attorney general’s race is going to be razor-thin.

While governors cannot run for consecutive terms in Virginia, the attorney general can. Republican Jason Miyares flipped the seat in 2021 and would likely be a future candidate for governor. Unlike Earle-Sears, he’s earned Trump’s support.