New federal tax credit scholarships will be able to help public school students. A researcher projects how much money will flow to them.

By Arianna ProtheroEducation Week, Bethesda, Md.(TNS)

Oct. 15 — How much money will flow to public school students from the new federal tax credit scholarship program? And who is most likely to benefit?

These are important considerations as states mull whether to opt into the program by Jan. 1. But they’re also difficult questions to answer.

Traditionally, tax credit scholarships and related state-run programs like vouchers give money to private school students. But the new federal program allows public school students to receive scholarships and even spend their money at their public schools. (How that will work is a separate question and debate. More on that here.)

Josh Cowen, a professor of education policy at Michigan State University, has been closely following the federal tax credit scholarship program’s development, and he recently released a working brief on his Substack channel on how much money public school students stand to gain.

Based on giving patterns for Ohio’s tax credit scholarship for private school tuition and an Arizona tax credit for public school donations, Cowen estimates that the program could generate $112 per public school student across all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2030. The Ohio program is the closest model to the federal program based on its structure, with expansive student eligibility, while the Arizona program offers a comparison because it’s administered through the tax code and is targeted to public schools and students.

Cowen is known as a staunch critic of state-level private school choice programs, but he says the federal program could hold opportunity for public schools and public school students.

Education Week spoke with him about his estimates. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Education Week: What are you most confident about in your calculations, and what unknowns might jumble your math?