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How to Create Jobs for the World’s 1.2 Billion New Workers

How to Create Jobs for the World’s 1.2 Billion New Workers

The world moves on different wavelengths. Some are high-frequency shocks — wars, emerging technologies, market panics — that spike quickly and dominate our attention. Others are low-frequency forces that move slowly but relentlessly: demographics, globalization, water and food scarcity.

The high-frequency waves feel urgent. The low-frequency waves reshape the system.

That is not to say crises don’t matter. But we cannot become casualties of the slow burn simply because the immediate crisis burns hotter or dominates more headlines. Ignore the slow burn long enough, and it becomes an inferno.

One of those forces is already in motion. Over the next 10 to 15 years, 1.2 billion young people in developing countries will come of working age — a scale the world has never seen. On current trajectories, these economies are expected to generate only about 400 million jobs over that same period — leaving a gap of staggering proportions.

This is often framed as a development challenge, and it is. It is also an economic challenge. And it is increasingly a national security challenge.

What was striking at the Davos conference last month was how easily this issue was brushed aside — overshadowed by the urgency of the issue du jour. It must not be ignored at coming forums like the Munich Security Conference, the G-7 and G-20.

If we invest early in people and connect them to productive work, this vast new generation can build lives of dignity and become a foundation for growth and stability. If we do not, the consequences are predictable: pressure on institutions, irregular migration, conflict, and rising insecurity as young people reach for any path available to them.

The World Bank Group is pursuing the first path with urgency, bringing together public finance, knowledge, private capital, and risk-management tools around a jobs strategy built on three pillars.

First, creating infrastructure — both human and physical. Without reliable power, transportation, education and healthcare, private investment and jobs never materialize. While the role of physical infrastructure is well understood, investment in people is equally critical. For example, a skills center in Bhubaneswar, India — supported in partnership with the government and private sector —— trains nearly 38,000 people each year. Because the preparation is aligned with real market demand, nearly all graduates secure employment — or go on to create jobs themselves, supported by engineering, manufacturing and intellectual property training.

Second, creating a business-friendly environment. Clear rules and predictable regulation reduce uncertainty and improve the ease of doing business. Jobs are generated when entrepreneurs and firms have the confidence to invest and expand. Public resources can help unlock that process, but job creation at scale depends on the private sector — especially micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises that generate most employment.