The Iran ceasefire and peace talks this week are hanging by a thread as tensions boil over the strategic waterway that epitomizes Tehran’s new leverage and a conflict that critics warn has escaped President Donald Trump’s control.
On Friday, Trump said Iran had “agreed to everything,” prompting a stock market rally on hopes the war could soon end. But by Sunday, this looked like another case of overhyping diplomacy, and the president was again threatening to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants, and Tehran had shut the Strait of Hormuz back down. A mutual lack of trust and fears of a full return to war were on display after the US Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged freighter that tried to bust its blockade of Tehran’s fleet.
The whiplash is typical of Trump’s war leadership, which veers between triumphant predictions of imminent peace and alarming threats of violence. His opponents see chaos and the absence of a plan, while the president’s aides insist he’s masterfully wielding leverage in a way that will force Iran to cave.
But Trump’s fog of war faces its next date with reality as an expected second set of US-Iran talks loom in Pakistan ahead of the scheduled expiration of the ceasefire Tuesday. The next few days may show whether Trump’s now-familiar strategy of intimidation can create diplomatic openings or whether its effectiveness is dwindling. If it fails, Trump may again face a choice of whether to escalate US military involvement to try to find a way out with potentially disastrous results for the global economy and his own sliding popularity.
One of the most confusing characteristics of this war is that it’s all but impossible to judge the sincerity and accuracy of either US or Iranian statements about it.
No one outside Iran can say exactly which leaders are calling the shots after waves of assassinations of regime figures. This makes it hard to assess its diplomatic strategy.
But Trump’s mood in the war — at least as reflected by his social media statements — is constantly shifting. US officials were quoted as saying last week in various reports that Iran was willing to give up supporting proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and to turn over its stocks of highly enriched uranium. This would represent a huge win for the administration. But modern history and Iran’s recent statements and behavior raise questions.
Yet there are compelling reasons, behind the rhetoric and belligerence, for both sides to avoid renewed fighting. Perhaps both are cranking up tensions before possible talks to create diplomatic space.
Trump’s repeated insistence that a deal is in reach hints at waning enthusiasm for a war that has inflicted a heavy economic and political price in a midterm election year. The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that despite his bravado, Trump harbors serious fears about its consequences and the risks of an escalation.
For Iran’s regime, survival when the war does end would be a victory in itself. The US blockade of Iran’s ports meanwhile threatens to turn a devastated economy into a societal collapse. Weeks of relentless bombing has caused massive devastation that will cost trillions of dollars to rebuild.