The United States is entering an energy demand supercycle unlike
anything seen in decades.The U.S. experienced a major build out of
new power plants in the mid to late 1990s and early 2000s, but that
boom collapsed abruptly after the Enron scandal and related
financial failures undermined confidence in the merchant generation
model and halted investment.1 The country has added very
little net dispatchable generation (power sources that can be
turned on whenever needed to meet demand) over the past two
decades—arguably close to zero.During this period, aging coal
units retired, coal became increasingly disfavored, and both policy
and market forces shifted new capacity toward intermittent
(nondispatchable) renewables instead.2, 3

U.S. electricity demand—flat for nearly two
decades—is now rising again due to increasing commercial and
industrial loads, including data centers.4
Five‑year peak‑load growth forecasts have accelerated
sharply, increasing from 24 GW (2022) to 166 GW (2025),
driven by AI‑driven data center expansion, manufacturing
onshoring, and building and transportation electrification. Data
center electricity demand has tripled over the past decade and is
projected to double or triple again by 2028, with
AI‑optimized facilities accounting for a major share of U.S.
load growth through 2030.5, 6. 7, 8, 9

This sudden surge has exposed a simple but consequential
reality:America's grid infrastructure, supply chains, and
permitting systems were not built for an era of sustained,
compounding load growth.The result is a nationwide race —
among utilities, developers, OEMs, and regions — to secure
the equipment, fuel, workforce, and interconnection access required
to deliver reliable power at a moment when demand keeps rising.

As demand soars, global supply chains for generation equipment
are being stretched to their limits.Lead times for large power
transformers have expanded from months to years.Even more
constrained are the markets for gas turbines and reciprocating
engines10 — both essential for dispatchable,
quickly deployable generation.

Turbine manufacturers such as GE Vernova now have order books
that extend into 2028–2030, leaving little flexibility for
late cycle buyers. Reciprocating engine suppliers, including
Wärtsilä, Caterpillar, and Cummins, are seeing similar
pressure as customers seek modular solutions that can be deployed
faster and operate more flexibly, even if they come with higher
fuel use and emissions per MWh.11, 12

Indicative Lead Times:Turbines vs.
Reciprocating Engines13

Indicative Lead Times:Turbines vs. Reciprocating Engines

With both turbine and engine manufacturing slots tightening,
developers increasingly face a decision not between ideal
technologies but between available ones.

Data Centers Are Rewriting Regional Load
Forecasts

Driving much of the recent transformation in America's
electricity demand is the explosive expansion of AI and cloud
computing infrastructure.Modern data centers, which were once
relatively small and dispersed, have evolved into enormous
industrial facilities that require continuous, uninterruptible
power supplies measured in multi-gigawatt
increments.14