The best way to manage the fallout of the US-Israel war on Iran is to end it now.

United States President Donald Trump’s instincts are correct. He wants to end the current engagement as soon as possible. He is using both a carrot and a stick to achieve that result. The carrot he offers is to spare Iran’s electricity grid and energy industry from further destruction. The stick, of course, is more bombing and possibly a ground invasion.

He should lean more in the direction of the carrot.

Destroying Iran’s energy infrastructure would result in an environmental disaster and make it an economic basket case for years to come. It would create a legion of refugees who would eventually make their way to Europe and possibly the US.

These refugees, unlike those who left Iran after the Iranian revolution of 1979, would not be blaming the ayatollahs for taking away their freedoms. They would hate America for what it did to them and their homeland. They would be a destabilising force on the world stage. I guarantee this would come back to bite us here in the US.

Obviously, coming up with an immediate negotiated peace would be preferable, but even if there were no agreement, it would be good for the US to simply leave. If we called a unilateral ceasefire and simply left the region, the Iranian regime would have a vested interest in opening the Strait of Hormuz because it would help its economy. This would immediately lower oil prices globally.

And what if the Iranians continued terrorising cargo ships as they tried to move their product? Well, that would incite an immediate reaction from our allies, trade partners and competitors. It would not simply be our problem; it would be everybody’s problem. And my assumption is that the Iranian regime would back off pretty quickly in the face of a global reaction.

Regime change will not happen during this current campaign. Regimes do not collapse when bombs are dropping. But that does not mean that the current efforts have not been successful in weakening the governing structure.

As the Trump administration calls a halt to its ongoing campaign, it should also work to arm insurgent groups who have the will but not the weaponry to overthrow the Islamic republic. It is too much to ask our friends inside the country to keep bringing only knives to what clearly will be a series of gunfights.

Of course, the number one reason to end this war now is domestic politics. The American people do not want it, and they certainly do not want the higher petrol prices that have accompanied it.