Jason Ma is the weekend editor at Fortune, where he covers markets, the economy, finance, and housing.

The U.S. economy is still managing to avoid a recession, but just barely, with its fate likely resting on California and New York, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In social media posts on Wednesday, he reiterated his warning that states representing nearly one-third of nationwide GDP are already in a recession or at high risk of one. Another third is “treading water,” while the rest are still growing but suffering from less momentum.

While his latest assessment largely echoes what he said over the summer and earlier this month, Zandi moved the industrial bellwether state of Michigan from the “treading water” list to the “recessionary” one.

That’s as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to weigh on the automakers that power the state’s economy. While General Motors and Ford reported upbeat third-quarter earnings this past week, they still see billions of dollars in tariff-related costs.

Meanwhile, supply-chain disruptions—including China’s curbs on rare-earth exports that came in retaliation to Trump’s trade war—have also hit production.

“This state-level picture mirrors the national trend: the U.S. economy is not in recession, but it is struggling to avoid one,” Zandi wrote. “This is evident in the job market, as payroll job growth has come to a virtual standstill, and likely will look even weaker after all the data revisions are in.”

Construction, manufacturing, technology, finance, government, and professional services are shedding jobs, he added, while just a few sectors, namely healthcare and hospitality, are still adding to payrolls.

Earlier this month, he sounded the alarm on the labor market, saying it’s weak and getting weaker as private-sector datasets indicate there was essentially no job growth in September.

Here’s how the states and one federal district(*) break down: