But initial claims data is 'noisy,' says GMU economist

Signage for a job fair is seen on 5th Avenue after the release of the jobs report in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 3, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo

Virginia unemployment claims spike in early February

Signage for a job fair is seen on 5th Avenue after the release of the jobs report in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 3, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo

But initial claims data is 'noisy,' says GMU economist

Initial unemployment insurance claims in Virginia increased 71.2% in the first week of February, according to the state.

For the week ending Feb. 7, there were 4,592 initial unemployment insurance claims filed, a Thursday news release from the Virginia Department of Workforce Development and Advancement, or Virginia Works, stated. That number is 43.4% higher than in a comparable week in 2025.

While those percentages are attention-getters, they don’t necessarily mean gloom for Virginia’s economy, cautioned Keith Waters, assistant director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.

“The initial claims data is incredibly noisy,” he said.

Looking at initial claims data week by week for 2025, Waters pointed out, shows some dramatic spikes too. “And then they fall back the next week,” he said.