US sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and LUKoil have sent shockwaves across global energy markets and left China's largest state oil companies pausing their imports of Russian crude.
Despite being now exposed to crippling penalties if it deals with the sanctioned Russian companies, China - one of Russia's top customers - has its own playbook to deal with the impact, experts say.
China has already been stockpiling oil, shielding itself from potential disruption for months, and Chinese oil firms could find ways to navigate sanctions and continue bringing in discounted Russian oil.
A halt in Chinese imports of Russian crude could put a major strain on Moscow's oil revenues as the administration of US President Donald Trump looks to ramp up pressure on the Kremlin as part of its efforts to broker a negotiated end to war in Ukraine.
The US sanctions announced on October 22 cut off the Russian companies from American banking systems, preventing them from operating in US dollars. Violators can face stiff penalties, including secondary sanctions.
But analysts say the impact of the US sanctions will largely depend on how strictly they are enforced and if Washington is prepared to impose secondary sanctions on countries that continue to do business with Rosneft and LUKoil.
"It is unclear yet whether the United States will match the threat of secondary sanctions with actual enforcement of the new sanctions measures it has already enacted," David Goldwyn, a former US special envoy for international energy affairs and Andrea Clabough, fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote for the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, on October 23.
"Chinese refiners are already well practiced in evading US sanctions, for their part, and can usually find workarounds if they still want these Russian cargoes at bargain-basement prices."
China relies heavily on Russian oil imports. Rosneft and LUKoil supplied about one-quarter of Russia's oil exports to China last year, according to data analytics firm Kpler.
As much as 20 percent of China's crude imports - roughly 2 million barrels a day in the first nine months of 2025 - came from Russia, making it one of the country's leading sources of oil for processing into products such as diesel, gasoline, and plastics.