• Eyes On Iraq: Iraq's parliamentary elections on November 11 come at a critical moment for Tehran. With its influence in the region facing growing challenges, the results could determine whether Iran keeps a key foothold or ends up juggling proxies from a distance, at a higher cost.

• Leftist Economists, Sociologists Detained: Security forces in Tehran raided several homes this week, going after left-leaning scholars and writers. They arrested economist Parviz Sedaqat, sociologist Mahsa Asadollahnejad, and translator Shirin Karimi, and they summoned economist Mohammad Maljoo, whose status is still unclear. There's no official explanation yet. Hossein Qazian, a US-based Iranian sociologist, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda the authorities are sending a message: a show of force to remind critics the state hasn't lost its grip.

• Ask Me Anything, On Reddit: I've been fielding sharp questions on Iran and the wider Middle East on Reddit this week. If you're into nuanced takes and back-and-forths, you might enjoy the thread. I'll be answering until later today, so if there's something on your mind, you've still got time to drop it in. Go on, AMA!

Setbacks in Syria and increasing pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon have made Iraq the central stage for Iran to protect its regional influence, maintain economic access, and preserve its deterrence strategy.

In other words, what happens in Baghdad over the next few weeks could have ripple effects far beyond Iraq's borders.

Shi'ite factions within Iraq's Coordination Framework -- home to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani -- are now at odds over US-backed moves to disband the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the Iran-aligned militias folded into Iraq's army.

Once united under Tehran, many Shi'ite groups are now running against each other, signaling a shift toward transactional politics. Last month, Iran sent Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani to Baghdad to try to contain the rivalries, but it's still unclear if he succeeded.

Why It Matters: For Tehran, Iraq has become its most crucial foothold -- the go-to anchor for regional influence and deterrence as its options elsewhere in the Middle East shrink.

With Iraq's Shi'ite Coordination Framework showing cracks and voters growing tired of militia politics, there's an opening for more nationalist forces to chip away at Iran's grip on government formation, especially if turnout is low and coalition talks drag on.

US pressure to disarm the PMF and tighten state control directly challenges Tehran's leverage, making heavy-handed tactics riskier and costlier.