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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

WASHINGTON --As Washington weighs its next steps with Tehran, some analysts see familiar patterns emerging -- not from the Middle East, but from the Kremlin's playbook.

In an interview with RFE/RL, Luke Coffey,a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute focusing on national security and transatlantic relations, said Iran appears to be borrowing directly from Russia's negotiation strategy: Prolong talks, seek concessions incrementally, and avoid making meaningful commitments while maintaining the appearance of diplomacy.

RFE/RL: When you look at Iran's response to recent peace proposals, do you see parallels with Russia's approach to negotiations over Ukraine -- publicly embracing diplomacy while privately hardening its demands?

Luke Coffey: There are a lot of similarities, because Iran has watched the [US special envoy Steve] Witkoff playbook over the past year or so with Russia. The Iranians know what they can get away with. They know how to drag the discussions out, make it look like Trump is achieving something, when in reality, he'll achieve nothing. And they have learned this from the Russians.

RFE/RL: Both Moscow and Tehran want sanctions relief before making major concessions. Is that diplomacy or leverage politics dressed up as diplomacy?

Coffey: From their point of view, it makes sense to sequence it this way. They're going to ask for this whether or not the Trump administration will lift sanctions beforehand remains to be seen.

In the case of Russia, you could argue that maybe the lifting of the oil sanctions on Russian crude oil -- while many observers thought it was linked to global markets and Iran -- was in fact a concession given to Russia by the Trump administration.

If I was Iran or Russia, I would want international sanctions lifted. I would want frozen assets released. But it would be a mistake to do so at this point because Russia is the aggressor here. In the case of Iran, Iran has a 47-year track record of conducting terrorism across the region, especially targeting US interests. It should be up to them to make the first move, not the United States.

RFE/RL: Russia wants frozen assets returned, while Iran wants access to frozen funds and economic normalization. How dangerous is it when negotiations become less about peace and more about financial recovery for authoritarian regimes?

Coffey: It's a slippery slope, and this is one of the reasons why nothing should be agreed until everything is agreed when it comes to these peace talks, whether it's with Russia or with Iran. Both will try to take whatever they can get while giving back the least amount required.