Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

What You Need To Know: EU leaders will gather in Brussels on October 23 for their regular fall summit, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy likely to attend. But apart from potentially agreeing in principle on more sanctions on Russia, they are unlikely to make much progress on finding more money for Kyiv or advancing the country's EU membership prospects. Instead, the big talking point might be a meeting few of them will attend -- the impending Budapest summitbetween the US and Russian presidents. Expect the host, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has often held views contrary to the rest of the bloc on Ukraine and Russia, to give a short update at the summit about the preparation of the meeting in his capital.

Deep Background: On sanctions it is perhaps indicative that the draft EU summit conclusions, seen by RFE/RL, have two bracketed options on the latest raft of punitive measures against the Kremlin: "the European Council [welcomes the][calls for a swift] adoption of the 19th package of sanctions." The sanctions proposal, which was presented by the European Commission in mid-September, includes the complete ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports by the start of 2027 and also targets the Russian shadow fleet and banks, including some in Central Asian countries. While all 27 EU member states are in agreement with the thrust of the general sanctions, Slovakia has still not given its green light. Austria had also expressed reservations as it wanted to remove some Russian oligarchs that have been on the blacklist for years in order to help Raiffeisen Bank, an Austrian lender, with legal issues in Russia. Eventually, it folder, as all other EU member states were against Vienna's proposal. It will, however, be harder to convince Slovakia regarding its objections, as its prime minister, Robert Fico, wants to have a discussion about the bloc's decision to ban the sale of all new petrol and diesel cars by 2035. This has absolutely nothing to do with the latest package of sanctions, but, in Brussels, various issues tend to get tangled up and are part of the inevitable horse-trading.

The draft summit conclusions on the Green Deal, the EU's ambitious goal to emit zero greenhouse gases by 2050, are already now written to soften the blow for member states with a considerable automotive sector -- like Slovakia. The conclusions note that the "European Council recalls the need to intensify collective efforts to ensure Europe's industrial renewal and decarbonization in a technologically neutral manner. It underlines in this context that particular attention should be paid to traditional industries, notably the automotive, shipping, aviation, and energy-intensive industries, such as steel and metals and chemicals, so that they remain resilient and competitive in a global market." What is likely to happen is that Bratislava will be able to extract more reassurances going forward, including a review of the 2035 combustion engine ban, and that Slovakia will eventually wave through the latest package of Russia sanctions.

What You Need To Know: The European Union is edging closer to training Ukrainian troops inside the country itself and to expanding other forms of support -- including border monitoring, assistance for war veterans, and boosting Ukraine's cybersecurity. Brussels is also considering establishing forward positions in Ukraine in case of a future cease-fire. That's according to strategic reviews seen by RFE/RL of the EU's two missions dealing with Ukraine: the EU Advisory Mission (EUAM), which focuses on strengthening the civilian security sector; and the EU Military Assistance Mission (EUMAM), which has so far trained 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers on EU soil. The reviews come as the EU is still working out what security guarantees it can offer Kyiv if the war stops. The documents also note, however, that Russia "maintains its objective to redraw the European security order" and that Moscow's "military aggression and approach to the diplomatic process demonstrate that its ultimate goal to subjugate Ukraine has not changed."

Deep Background: Deploying troops to Ukraine -- regarded by many as the ultimate security guarantee -- remains a national decision, but EU training missions allow Brussels to provide wide-ranging support to Kyiv. Changing the mandate of both EUMAM and EUAM requires unanimity, however, and this is what both reviews are actually pushing for. EUMAM, which was launched in late 2022 as a direct response to Russia's full-scale invasion, has been one of the EU's success stories when it comes to supporting Ukraine. Fifteen full combat brigades have been trained in 18 EU member states offering 1,750 different types of training modules, including practice with F-16 and Mirage jets -- all for a relatively modest budget of 360 million euros ($420 million). Kyiv, however, has repeatedly called for some of the training to take place on Ukrainian soil. It also aims to increase the number of trained soldiers from 4,000 to 20,000 per month. The strategic review of EUMAM notes that three training centers have already been established in the western part of Ukraine, but that none of them are fully operational due to a lack of adequate infrastructure and qualified external trainers.

There is a full European Parliament plenary in Strasbourg this week and there should be lots of Belarus-related news coming out from the chamber. Opposition leaders Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Syarhey Tsikhanouski will address the lawmakers, who will also debate and vote on a resolution about the fifth anniversary of the fraudulent presidential election in the country. On top of that, it's expected that Andrzej Poczobut, an imprisoned Polish-Belarusian journalist, will win the Sakharov Prize, one of the top human rights awards that the European Parliament gives annually.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/eu-sanctions- russia-ukraine/33565536.html