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With just more than one year left before Election Day 2026, the race for control of the House seems to be a toss-up while the GOP has the advantage in holding on to the Senate.

Following next week’s elections in Virginia and New Jersey, which will be seen as indicators of the parties’ strength heading into 2026, the focus will quickly shift to the midterms, which will determine much about how the latter half of President Trump’s second term will play out.

Historic trends should benefit the Democrats in their race to win back a majority in the House. The party needs to net three seats to win the majority, and the president’s party has lost seats in the House in almost every midterm election in modern history.

In Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) average of the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters if they plan to vote Democratic or Republican in the congressional election, Democrats lead by about 3 points. They’ve held a lead by varying amounts consistently in the polling index since June.

While not an exact measure, the generic congressional ballot is seen as an indicator of which party is likely to win the House in the next election.

But Scott Tranter, director of data science for DDHQ, said he expects volatility to come with the generic ballot and considers the race for the House to be a toss-up.

“I think we’re going to see some volatility over the next few months on the generic ballot, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the average go down a couple of points and then pop back up,” he told Morning Report.

Mid-decade redistricting is looming over the House battle, as multiple states move to redraw their congressional district lines ahead of the midterms to try to win as many seats for one party as possible.

Texas, Missouri and North Carolina Republicans have already pushed through maps that are likely to net the GOP seats in next year’s elections. Democrats have responded to these efforts, with California proposing a ballot measure to allow the state Legislature to redraw its lines and net their party up to five seats next year.